Blue Jays bring back Kiermaier, add IKF
After 48 days with no MLB signings, the Blue Jays strike for two signings in two days. Zach breaks down what they mean for Toronto.
By Zach Worden
Nothing hits like a baseball transaction at the holidays — unless it’s a Toronto Blue Jays’ transaction, then, uh, nothing defends like a baseball transaction at the holidays?
As I’m sure you know by now, the Blue Jays started their off-season shopping for their 2024 MLB roster by re-signing Kevin Kiermaier and bringing in super-utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
Suffice it to say, adding a couple of glove-first, “we’ll take what we can get at the plate” pieces isn’t meeting the offseason expectations set by the highs of the Shohei Ohtani chase.
However, these were the types of moves that were going to be made regardless of whoever the big fish is that Toronto brings in. But with that, let me say — there had better be a big fish coming down the pipeline.
So, while judging the roster as it stands on Dec. 28 is likely a futile exercise, there are some conclusions we can draw from the $17.5 million Ross Atkins and co. doled out to Kiner-Falefa and Kiermaier for 2024.
I think it’s best to look at each move by itself, as there are certainly multiple layers to both additions.
Let’s start with the reigning AL Centre Field Gold Glove winner.
In 2023, Kiermaier slashed .265/.322/.419 with 21 doubles, six triples, eight home runs and stole 14 bases while being thrown out just once.
That was good for a 104 wRC+ coming with a 7.1 per cent walk rate, 21.1 per cent strikeout rate, 55.6 per cent ground ball rate and 3.5 per cent barrel rate.
So, yes, the 2023 results at the plate were above average, but it’s not like there aren’t a few red flags that come up.
Kiermaier outperformed each of his expected stats and ran a .321 BABIP — .020 points higher than his career average.
Steamer projects him to hit .243/.304/.409 in 2024 with eight home runs, 10 stolen bases and a 91 wRC+ — likely stemming from some less-than-ideal batted ball results in 2023.
Personally, I think that might be a little harsh for a player who, by all accounts, was freed up physically coming off hip surgery and posted an 87th-percentile sprint speed, meaning some BABIP overperformance can be baked into the results.
The 33-year-old’s second half from 2023 might be a reasonable spot to look at what he might produce in 2024. A .258/.311/.417 line with a 100 wRC+ and a .310 BABIP should be rather sustainable if he remains healthy.
Now, that’s a lot of offence talk for a guy who’s in Toronto to defend.
There was no qualified centre fielder in the American League better than Kiermaier in 2023. However, one unqualified competitor might’ve taken the title if he hadn’t been stashed away in left field for most of the season.
That is, of course, Daulton Varsho.
The Blue Jays ran out the best defensive outfield in baseball last season and should run it back now that Kiermaier’s back in the fold. But Varsho’s excellence in centre does raise some questions about the necessity of bringing back the four-time gold glove winner when the team finished 16th in MLB in home runs and 14th in runs scored.
Sure, Kiermaier theoretically doesn’t prevent them from bringing in some sort of slugger that can fill some innings in left and filter through the DH spot, but it feels less likely to be the case, given the options remaining on the free-agent market.
A clean fit would have been to slide Varsho into the spot where he posted 18 DRS and 10 OAA in just 462.1 innings before bringing in someone who gives you a little bit more pop at the plate than Kiermaier, even with what would have likely been a significant defensive drop off.
I’m going to plug it again, but all three of us here at the Bird’s Eye View built different offseason paths for the Blue Jays, where Jake brought in Tommy Pham to man left field, Jori traded for Tyler O’Neill and I built a platoon option led by Michael A. Taylor. So there are always different pathways available, but this seemingly limits some of the more offence-friendly paths that could have been travelled this offseason.
It’s more than possible another outfielder is brought into the mix, but with players capable of playing the outfield like Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider, Spencer Horwitz and Addison Barger all on the roster or knocking at the door for playing time, would it make sense to bring in a Teoscar Hernadez-type?
Regardless of what else happens, there are a ton of positives to letting Kiermaier have free reign of centre once again.
For a team built on the strength of its pitching and defence, relying on the staff to repeat its sensational 2024 after removing the likes of Kiermaier and Gold-Glove-winning third baseman Matt Chapman from the field behind them would be unreasonable. So bringing back Kiermaier at least guarantees that the Blue Jays will get A++ defence in centre all the time and in left most of the time behind a set of arms that allowed the 10th-highest flyball rate in baseball in 2023.
He’s also just a likeable dude.
The energy and love that Kiermaier and the fans shared in 2023, while surprising at first, emerged as an underrated storyline of the season.
In our post-2023 “Blue Jays awards” podcast, we voted Kiermaier as the second-most enjoyable player on the team to watch. He’s the type of player that the more you watch, the more you come to appreciate what he brings to the field on a daily basis, and hopefully, he’ll be able to repeat what he did defensively for Toronto in 2024.
Moving onto Kiner-Falefa, long rumoured to be a Blue Jays target, Toronto finally brings him in on a two-year, $15-million contract.
After being part of the trade that sent Josh Donaldson to the New York Yankees in 2022 — one day after being traded to the Minnesota Twins for Mitch Garver, Kiner-Falefa reached free agency for the first time this offseason.
At 28, he’s played in parts of six major league seasons and spent time at every position on the field other than first base. However, he hasn’t caught since 2019, and even when he did, he wasn’t very adept behind the plate.
Sure, it might make sense if Toronto sees him as a third catcher (a la Daulton Varsho from an offseason ago), but it would likely have to be in an emergency situation to see him slap on the catcher’s gear.
So, what role will he play with the Blue Jays next season?
On Wednesday, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith wrote: “While his 2024 role hasn’t been finalized, the right-handed hitting utility player is sure to appear in most of the team’s games next year if healthy.”
For a player with a career 81 wRC+, that’s a bit of a scary proposition.
If Kiner-Falefa simply appears in most of the 2024 Blue Jays’ games, say as a late-game defensive replacement rather than an everyday starter, the signing looks much more palatable. But, if he’s coming in as either a stop-gap replacement at third base until Toronto gets a longer MLB look at some of the prospects pushing for playing time or as a Whit Merrifield type, where he plays all over the diamond, receiving just less than 600 plate appearances, then there might be a few more question marks come March 28.
With Biggio, Schneider and Santiago Espinal all currently on the roster, signing Kiner-Falefa is an unneeded redundancy. While the addition likely signals the end of Espinal’s Blue Jays tenure, it is fair to question 1. whether it is actually an upgrade and 2. if that upgrade is worth ~$5 million annually.
When looking at Kiner Falefa compared to the rest of the Blue Jays’ depth/platoon/utility infield options, I’d say he has a little more juice in his bat, as evidenced by the top best speed of the bunch and a max-exit velocity of 109.6 m.p.h — that was better than all but Biggio’s best swings in ‘23.
He did post the best hard-hit rate (39.2 per cent), xwOBACON (.326), sweet spot percentage (33.5 per cent) and barrel rate (3.1 per cent) of his career in 2023, so perhaps Toronto thinks it can get a little bit more from Kiner-Falefa offensively. For a guy who has never posted an xWOBA above .294, I don’t necessarily see it, but you never know!
On the defensive side, Kiner-Falefa is seemingly at his best when playing the hot corner. Over 1207.1 career innings at third base, he owns 19 DRS and 22 OAA, and for what it’s worth, he won the 2020 AL Gold Glove at third. At short, he has played 2691.0 career innings with 25 DRS and -6 OAA (defensive metrics, amirite?).
While 2023 was the first season in his major league career that he spent time in the outfield, he wasn’t anything special, but maybe with some more time in the grass, he’d become an above-average outfielder.
Ernie Clement posted 4 DRS in 118 innings at shortstop for the Blue Jays in 2023 and, between Triple-A and MLB, stole 13 bases in 15 attempts. Kiner-Falefa played just eight innings at short for the Yankees and stole 14 bases in 19 attempts — falling below the 75 per cent threshold that generally makes a stolen base worth attempting.
In my eyes, Kiner-Falefa becomes Toronto’s best defensive option at third base but doesn’t make a significant enough upgrade as a hitter, defensive option at any other position or baserunner to make the case for a multi-year deal.
Essentially, the time to really judge the signing will come when we know what Kiner-Falefa’s role will be and what the entire roster will look like when Opening Days rolls around.