Is Justin Turner the final piece of the Blue Jays' offseason?
Toronto made its offensive splash Tuesday, signing two-time All-Star Justin Turner, and Zach is here to break down the move.
By Zach Worden
@Worden_Zach
With spring training just a matter of weeks away (let’s go, amirite?), the Toronto Blue Jays made their first major offensive addition on Tuesday, signing 39-year-old Justin Turner to a one-year deal worth $13 million.
According to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, the contract includes $1.5 million in roster and performance bonuses.
As the DH market started to unfold over the past week, with Joc Pederson headed to the Arizona Diamondbacks and Rhys Hoskins signing with the Milwaukee Brewers — the Blue Jays reportedly going hard for the former — Toronto’s options to add an impact bat in the designated hitter spot seemingly came down to a group including Turner, J.D. Martinez, Jorge Soler, Joey Votto and a potential reunion with Brandon Belt.
If you were to prefer Martinez or Soler to Turner, I wouldn’t blame you. By wRC+, he has declined every full season since 2018; he’s never finished in the top 70th percentile of hitters in max exit velo and never higher than the 82nd percentile in average exit velo.
Of course, Turner does some things exceptionally well at the plate to offset those issues, and we’ll get into those later, but at 39, you have to wonder when the cliff will show up.
It also seems likely that however much time he spends at third base in 2024, will come as a liability.
In just 57 innings at the hot corner in ‘23, he finished with -3 DRS and -3 OAA. 57 innings are, of course, a pretty small sample, and Turner is just a year removed from putting up 1 DRS and -2 OAA over 574.1 innings, so perhaps the Blue Jays will see what he can handle defensively in spring training. This would only be the reality in a world where Toronto adds another hitter with a DH profile.
As far as another move goes, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith said on the JD Bunkis Podcast Tuesday morning, “Maybe I’ll be wrong, but I think this is probably the last big move.” Shi Davidi wrote, “Turner arrives to replace Brandon Belt as the primary DH and clubhouse sage… and though other additions are possible, it seems like the Blue Jays’ heavy lifting is done.”
While that makes it seem likely the Blue Jays will arrive in Dunedin with the roster as currently constructed — or something very close to it — Fansided’s Robert Murray also said Tuesday, “I don’t know if it’s a Chapman, or a Bellinger, a trade, but they can’t be done…I know they’ve poked around on a couple different things…I know Ross Atkins is still trying to do some stuff, having conversations…I think this is not the end.”
If they were to bring in another DH type, it would make for a bit of an awkward fit and almost certainly mean a shaky defender would be lining up somewhere defensively — which would be a surprising shift from the pitching/defence formula that was deployed in 2023 and doubled-down on earlier this offseason.
None of the projection systems particularly love any of the DH types remaining. Steamer has Soler finishing with a 119 wRC+, Martinez a 107 mark, Belt finishing with a 106 and Votto at 95. To compare, it has Turner projected for a 105 wRC+.
Personally, I think singing Turner makes a Matt Chapman reunion look like it would significantly boost the club in 2024, but as Davidi noted: “Re-signing Chapman would require a commitment the Blue Jays have thus far been reluctant to make and the same applies to Cody Bellinger, the other top free agent remaining on the market.”
So while I did spend a lot of time being captious about the move, I actually think it’s a good addition for the Blue Jays because, quite frankly, there’s still a ton to like about Turner.
First off, the move is sure to please the clubhouse. Bo Bichette name-dropped Turner while on Blair & Barker last Wednesday.
“There are great players out there. Turner and Martinez are two guys that come to my mind, veteran bats that can help not just on the field but off the field as well,” he said when asked about a potential offseason addition.
Chris Bassitt called Turner “someone we really needed” on MLB Network Radio.
“Obviously, elite hitter. Obviously, big-time player for our game — knows what it takes to win. I think we just need more of those guys in our clubhouse to get us on the right track,” he said. “We have the talent, now it’s putting it all together, and I think he’s going to be a very big piece to do that.”
“I think the thing that makes him so difficult… is not trying to do too much with a certain pitch. If I throw a fastball in, a lot of guys will get jammed because they’re trying to pull it, and he just kind of muscles it out and flares into the outfield, and I'm like, ‘gosh dang it,’” the Blue Jays righty told Mike Ferrin and Jim Duquette. “He’s such a veteran presence, he’s such a veteran hitter that knows what the pitcher’s trying to do, and then he also understands what he has to do to try to get hits.”
Mass Live’s Chris Cotillo shared a story on Twitter/X Tuesday about Turner’s leadership and how the two-time All-Star battled a bone bruise on his heel at the end of July and “could barely walk for the rest of the season.” However, “shutting it down was never an option” as “it was important to him to post every day and show young players the importance of sticking things out for your team.”
While I would tend to say that playing through injury might actually hurt one’s team, filling a leadership role in a clubhouse always comes in different forms, and if Turner thought some of the Boston Red Sox’s young players needed to see him gutting it out, who am I to argue?
In the Blue Jays’ press release announcing the signing, Ross Atkins said, “Justin Turner has proven himself not only as an exceptional player on the field, but also an exemplary leader in the clubhouse.”
“Justin’s history of delivering in big moments and his consistent pursuit of winning are admirable traits. Additionally, he and Kourtney's commitment to charitable work is equally inspiring and aligns with our team's values. We couldn’t be more excited for the impact Justin will have on our franchise both on and off the field.”
Moving to more of the on-field results, Cotillo also replied to a post saying that would discount Turner’s September on account of how bad the bone bruise was.
For the entire season, Turner posted a 114 wRC+ and .346 wOBA for the Red Sox with a .276/.345/.455 slash line while hitting 23 homers and driving in 96 runs.
In September, those numbers were a 56 wRC+, a .221/.286/.295 slash line with one home run and nine RBIs. His strikeout rate also ballooned (for him) to 24.8%.
So, if we look at his season without September grouped in, Turner posted a 126 wRC+ with a .287/.357/.488 slash line and a .363 wOBA. His xWOBA was also .013 points higher before the final month of the season.
If you’re not familiar with Turner’s career revitalization in 2014, I suggest you check out this piece from MLB.com, highlighting his transformation from utility man being cut by the New York Mets to All-Star, NLCS MVP and World Series champion with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Essentially, Turner added a leg kick and started pulling the ball in the air. I mean, check out the heat map of all his hits from 2014 to 2023:
Compared to the first five years of his career:
Numerically, Turner has a 28.9% fly ball rate from 2009 to 2013 and a 31.2% pull rate. Then flipped a switch in 2014, and has a 41.4% fly ball rate and 36.7% pull rate since.
It’s been well documented by this point who Turner is as a hitter, but he also has a knack for delivering in big moments.
For his career, he has hit .312/./397/.496 with runners in scoring position — good for a 141 wRC+, 21 points better than his career 120 wRC+ with the bases empty.
Of course, he’s a postseason star as well, owning a career 128 wRC+ and 13 home runs in 86 playoff games.
Sure, age may be a concern, but if his bone-bruised heel hadn’t tanked his 2023, Turner would likely have finished with his 10th straight season of posting a 120 wRC+ or higher.
It might not be the signing everyone wanted, but Turner has an elite track record, both on and off the field, and should be able to fill the cleanup spot in the Blue Jays’ order with ease.